Is Erdogan and the field that has lost maneuverability/ Is peace with the Kurds for the sultan or challenge?

Türkiye's authoritarian leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now fighting for his political survival - and this crisis is fully constructed. In the early hours of March 5, Erdogan ordered the invasion of Akram Imam Qala, the beloved mayor of Istanbul and his political rival. About 5 police force participated in the operation. Imamoglu, who was referred to as a potential presidential candidate, was arrested and accused of baseless charges such as corruption and terrorism. Despite the ban on public gatherings, the arrest has flareed Türkiye's biggest anti -government protests in more than a decade, which has expanded to the majority of the country's provinces. In some parts of Istanbul, the protesters' population reached more than one million - many of them were young. These are part of the Farren Afrz Notes, translated into two sections, the first part, "Decoding the Erdogan Pattern; Türkiye's leadership and the game of competitors/ Is Erdogan a greeting? ”Published and then the second and final part.

Erdogan's deadlock
Erdogan's recent behaviors show that Türkiye has become an authoritarian government with a mere appearance of electoral mechanism. But at the same time, he seems to have lost his confidence in his popularity. The high volume of efforts Erdogan spent to justify Imamoglu's judicial case is a testament to his anxiety and confusion. Contrary to previous arrests that were often motivated by revenge, the main motivation is the main motivation. The bitter here is that Erdogan's experience is a strange resemblance to what is now for Imamoglu: he was once the mayor of Istanbul and was unjustly imprisoned - and was unjustly imprisoned. Finance has shaken Turkey and has weakened the government's confidence in economic consolidation programs. Just two days after the arrest, the Turkish lira reached its lowest level, and the central bank had to inject $ 5 billion of foreign exchange reserves to prevent further fall. Circuit Breakers have also been activated many times to prevent stock market crash.

Erdogan may feel happy about Donald Trump now in the White House. Unlike Joe Biden, who treated him with a cold, Trump was a praise of Erdogan and has been silent against Imamoglu's arrest. But it costs nearby: Erdogan mobilized his base in the past with the US hostility and put his defeats to Washington. Now that he is united with Trump, he can no longer use it. On the other hand, an important change in Turkish domestic policy may further undermine Erdogan's power: the beginning of a possible peace process with the minority. On October 5, Erdogan's main ally, the government of Baghchali - the leader of the nationalist right -wing party - began talks with the Kurdish Regional Representative Party and even the PKK prison leader Abdullah Ocalan. The conversations reached a historical point in May: The PKK officially ended its six -year armed struggle and dissolved itself. Although apparently agreed with the process, it neither showed a strategic approach. He continued to focus on security discourse, punishable, and free of any roadmap.

Peace with Kurds, Challenge or Opportunity?
Kurdish leaders also strategically summarized their demands: the beginning of a democratic process. They found that only within the framework of the rule of law and the true segregation of the powers can access claims such as linguistic rights. But Erdogan is at the forefront: The beginning of such a trend requires the collapse of the authoritarian structure it himself has made. His relentless repression against Imamoglu and his entourage shows that he is reluctant to reform. But if it prevents the peace process, it will cause the risk of losing garden support - as it needs to maintain a majority of the election and, at the age of eight, is eager to sign a historic legacy by signing a peace deal. To maintain power, Erdogan must either change the constitution or hold parliament. But even then, with the tangible change of public opinion, his victory in the election is not certain. Now caught in a circle of yes, he is likely to go back to his usual reaction: instinctual use of government repression tools. But the volume of dismissals, arrests and election cancellations also have a ceiling; Before Türkiye becomes completely a single -party government. The fact is that Erdogan no longer has a maneuver. If he chooses his own time and manner, it can help a peaceful transition and leave a defenseable legacy. But his personality shows that such a change is unlikely. And if it continues to its usual way, there is a real danger for the Turkish people to be firmly against him - and the long and advent of his government can only be remembered as an era of authoritarianism.