The dagger of the agreement behind Tel Aviv!

An important diplomatic transformation took place on May 5, when the United States and Ansarullah (Houthis) reached a ceasefire agreement. However, both parties have their own account of this agreement, and each claim to have had the upper hand in the agreement.

The White House narrates that the American bombing campaign has forced Ansarullah to surrender; While the Houthis say Washington has failed to achieve its goals and needed the agreement to leave the deadlock.

"We have targeted them strongly," Trump said the day after the agreement was reached. They have a high capacity to tolerate impact. "They can say they have a lot of courage."

Regional countries such as Qatar and Kuwait quickly issued statements supporting the ceasefire agreement and expressed hope that security will be established in the Red Sea soon.

Former US Embassy in Yemen, Dr. Nabil Khouri, described the agreement as "definitely a positive accident". He said the agreement "ended a brutal bombing campaign that damaged Yemeni civilians, analyzed the reserves of American weapons, and at the same time had no sustainability achievement."

But what about Israel?
According to Giorgio Kafiro, a regional analyst in Al -Arabi al -Jadid, the agreement was followed by the growing tensions between Ansarullah and Israel. Just two days before the ceasefire announced, the Houthis fired a ballistic missile near the Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, injuring several people and disrupting international flights to Israel.

The next day, Israel responded with an extensive attack on Sanaa Airport and said it had "completely disabled the airport".
One of the important aspects of the US -Houthis agreement is that it does not include Israel. Immediately after the agreement was announced, Mehdi al -Mashhat, the head of Ansarullah's Supreme Political Council, announced that the Houthi attacks on Israel would continue.

"The agreement does not include any restrictions on the Houthis attacks on Israel, and this has shocked the Israelis, because Trump did not even bother to consult or inform the Israelis," said Trita Parsi, deputy chief executive of the Queen School. To stop these attacks, it will probably be necessary to end Israel's ethnic killing and cleansing in Gaza. "It shows that Trump's commitment to Israel, especially on issues that negatively affect US security, is very fragile."

"The Israelis have been shocked properly, especially as the agreement came after the Houthis were able to target Ben Gurion Airport and display the vulnerability of Israeli air defense systems," she said.

According to Vienna Ali Khan, a researcher at the Century Foundation, the agreement was not actually a “real fire”, but was more a “tactical arrangement”.

"If we are to be accurate, this agreement has exacerbated hostility between Israel and the Houthis," he said. The Houthis have explicitly stated that they reserve the right to resume attacks and have insisted that their agreement with the United States has no effect on their military campaign against Israel. They showed this by increasing attacks in the days following the agreement; "The attacks in which Israel intercepted several Houthi missiles."

From the Houthis point of view, this agreement confirms the efficiency of their military strategy, and Ansarullah considers it a strategic victory. Simply put, by targeting international shipping, they forced the United States to negotiate - without even a single privilege about Israel.

According to their narrative, this is the humiliation of a world superpower and strategic victory that now allows them to focus fully on Israel.

Ali Khan explained: "The Houthis have openly celebrated their role in intensifying tensions between Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, continue to consider themselves a Palestinian defender and see the ceasefire as a victory that strengthens their position in the region. The Houthi media have even said that their performance in the face of the United States has inspired powers such as China. "

Houthi Red Sea

"First America" ​​in practice
US operations against the Houthis cost the United States more than $ 5 billion. During nearly two months of the operation, Ansarullah overthrew seven US UAVs, and two super-fighter F/A-18 Super Hornet, each worth $ 5 million, crashed into the sea.

Trump, who was reluctant to engage in a long and costly conflict in the Middle East, concluded that the operation did not produce the desired results within a reasonable period.

In his election campaign, he had decided to stop the operation in his election campaign. On May 9, the White House suddenly ordered the US Central Command to "stop" all offensive operations against Ansarullah.

"The agreement is achieved at a critical time and is a practical manifestation of the" US first "policy in the Trump administration," said Marsa Khormah, a researcher at the Baker Institute at the University of Rice. The agreement not only prioritizes US national security interests and diplomacy, but also puts pressure on Israel, who initially saw Trump as the best US president for himself, and probably expected to be fully with Israel in all issues related to Iran.

In response to the US -Houthis agreement, Trita Parsi said, "It is quite clear that Trump is not as Biden depends on Israel, although unfortunately it has continued without Biden's restriction on Gaza."

Israel, now surprised by the US agreement with Ansarullah, finds itself in a vulnerable position. "For Israel, this agreement was a clear manifestation of Trump's first" first American "doctrine, which was implemented without special attention to traditional American allies," explained. The Israelis are now learning the same lesson that the Saudis learned in year 6 - that the United States always considers its security interests, even if it is at the expense of the partnership. The only difference is that while Riyadh responded to diplomacy in response to this situation, Israel has chosen the path of tension. "

The Role of Iran's negotiations
The Trump administration's diplomacy with Iran is directly related to the recent US -Ansarullah agreement. Although the Houthis had their own reasons and interests for accepting the ceasefire, experts say Iran's influence on Ansarullah has played a vital role in making the agreement possible.

Most likely, the agreement will accelerate the process of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran.

Tehran knows that many officials in Washington consider the Houthis to be merely an Iranian "proxy force"; Therefore, although Iran has always rejected operational control over Ansarullah, Iranian leaders were motivated to advance the ceasefire in coordination with the Houthis to prevent the weakening or deviation of nuclear negotiations.
"The US -Houthis agreement is a sign of Iran's goodness and shows that Tehran may be willing to negotiate beyond the nuclear program in the future," Ali Khan said. Although Iranian officials said they were not involved in the matter, there are strong signs that Iran has indirectly encouraged the Houthis to stop the attacks, indicating that Iran can play a more productive role in the region if the will. "

"I see the ceasefire mainly in the context of nuclear talks between the US and Iran," said Dr. Hossein Abish, a senior researcher at the Gulf Arab Institute in Washington. "If these talks were not going on, even if the Houthis decided to reduce or stop their actions, there would probably be no formal agreement with Washington."

"One of the Arab diplomats told me that Trump's agreement with the Houthis was not possible without a successful US conversation with Iran," she added.

"The Iranian authorities had earlier said that it was Iran, which, with its influence, prompted the Houthis to accept the ceasefire," said Marsa Khoram. This was the winning leaf that Iran played constructively to make the nuclear talks more smoother.
 

In response to a question about the impact of the ceasefire on Washington and Tehran's nuclear diplomacy, Dr. Hossein Abish said, "This is very useful for the negotiations, and from Washington's point of view, Iran seems to be a good gesture from Iran, and it is a promise of what may be in the event of an agreement."

"The severe turmoil on the Red Sea shipping and other threats is also reminded of the fact that reaching an agreement with Iran, regardless of the issue of nuclear bomb, is very important for American interests," she said.

Dr. Trita Parsi also had a similar view, saying: "It shows that even without reaching a final nuclear deal, US -Iran dialogues have many positive side effects for US national security. "The agreement is likely to move forward in front of the nuclear talks."

The fragility of the diplomacy path
Despite all the benefits of the US agreement with Ansarullah to continue the Nuclear talks in Washington and Tehran, there are many disruptive factors that highlight the fragility of this diplomatic path.

Vina Ali Khan warned: "If the conflict between the Houthis and Israel is intensified or if Israel decides to target Iran's nuclear facilities directly, the negotiations could be completely out of the way. Currently, it is the timing of everything, and this may be a good opportunity for Israel to attack Iran. "Given that there has been no final agreement and US -Iran dialogues are in the early stages, Washington may unwittingly in support of Netanyahu."